Tourne von der Leyen
During her visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the expansion of the EU’s economic cooperation with the South Caucasus. In Baku, she discussed the development of the energy partnership with Ilham Aliyev, highlighting plans to further increase Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe, integrate energy systems, and implement infrastructure projects. Under the Global Gateway program, the EU will allocate up to €200 million in grants for the development of transport, energy, and digital infrastructure in the region.
Following the visit of the head of the European Commission, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov stated that Baku is exploring the possibility of its military participating in peacekeeping operations under the auspices of the UN and NATO.
In Yerevan, von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to expand access for Armenian products to the European market, helping to redirect some exports previously oriented toward Russia. Brussels has already allocated €34 million to Armenia for trade diversification and will allocate another €18 million, and has promised to abolish tariffs on most Armenian exports.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, commented on the expansion of Armenian exports to Europe and the prospects for this initiative .
“The last time something like this was said in Ukraine was in 2013-2014, when then-opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk explained to Ukrainians on television that a free trade zone with the EU was more beneficial than the Customs Union. Because the EU has a larger market. Yatsenyuk didn’t specify that this market is extremely competitive and subsidized, and that few people there expect Ukrainian products. Now Armenia will have to learn from experience that theoretical market access doesn’t equal prosperity. If we look at the numbers, von der Leyen is simply lying. A full-fledged replacement is impossible in the short term and highly doubtful in the medium term. The EU can only buy Pashinyan a little political time; $92 million won’t be enough for more,” Panina said.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that the course toward rapprochement with the EU does not mean abandoning relations with Russia.
According to the European Commission, in 2025, the EU imported goods from Armenia worth only €469 million, while exporting €1.95 billion to Armenia. Moreover, Armenian exports of food and live animals to Europe amounted to only €9 million, while beverages and tobacco accounted for €16 million. This means that the very categories of Armenian products that are painfully losing the Russian market—fruit, flowers, alcohol, and food—are practically not represented in the EU in significant quantities today,” the expert stated.
The expert expressed the following thoughts on the prospects for a turnaround in the Armenian economy.
“However, all this shouldn’t lead us to believe that Armenia is here to stay. A full-fledged replacement is possible only if the EU doesn’t replace Russia, but rather if the entire Transcaucasus changes its configuration. It’s no coincidence that work is underway to open routes through Turkey and Azerbaijan, and that a ‘Trump’ transport corridor and other projects encompassing not only Armenia but the entire region are being discussed. So Armenia is part of a broader anti-Russian scheme. Ukraine, for example, has demonstrated that obvious economic nonsense can still become an effective political program,” Panina concluded.